Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows: 3rd Day, $1.16B Gone
Spot bitcoin ETF outflows reached a third straight session on Tuesday, November 3. The 12 U.S. funds lost $115.6 million combined, according to Farside data reported by Bloomingbit. That is small next to the days before it, but it extends the streak to roughly $1.16 billion. Here is what is confirmed and what it does to a miner.
What the spot bitcoin ETF outflows looked like
BlackRock’s IBIT led with $95 million out. Grayscale’s BTC fund lost $52.6 million. Bitwise’s BITB went the other way and took in $21.9 million. PANews, using SoSoValue, puts the total at about $116 million. The gap to $115.6 million is rounding and the data provider, not a disagreement about direction.
The two days before were bigger. Outflows were $643.3 million on October 30 and $398.6 million on November 2, per KuCoin News. Add the three together and you get $1,157.5 million. So the pace is slowing, but the direction has not turned. Our earlier look at the $643 million day has the fund-by-fund detail.
Is the selling over?
Nobody knows. One small day does not make a reversal. Outflows shrank from $643 million to $116 million, which is a better sign than a bigger number, but BITB was the only fund with inflows. We would want to see several net-inflow days before calling it a turn. Other pressure is still there: the U.S. midterm vote and a bitcoin price near $77,318. Model ranges live on our Bitcoin price prediction page.
Miner math: what three days of spot bitcoin ETF outflows mean for your margin
Here is the live maths on November 4. Bitcoin is $77,318 and the network is 1022 EH/s, so hashprice is about $34.24 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.65 | -$2.99 | -$6.11 | 4.2c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.76 | -$1.14 | -$3.68 | 6.2c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.22 | -$0.95 | -$3.84 | 6.7c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.80 | $1.27 | -$2.10 | 9.5c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
If the outflows continue and bitcoin slides another 10%: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.2 to 5.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.14 to -$1.53.
The blunt answer for miners
ETF flows move the price, not your machine. Hashrate sits near 1022 EH/s per mempool.space, and the table above shows who is already underwater. At 8 cents most older machines lose money today, and a 10% price drop makes it worse. If you run S19-class hardware above 6 cents, we would look at our we buy used miners page before the next difficulty change, or read the mining economics guides.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.
How this story was made: drafted with the help of AI tools from public sources, then edited by Nick Squires. See our editorial policy. Spot an error? Email ns@ingmining.com.