Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $643M: IBIT, FBTC Lead Exodus
Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $643.3 million on Friday, October 30. IBIT and FBTC led the exodus the day after the Binance hack. It was the biggest one-day outflow since June 25, according to CoinDesk, using SoSoValue data. Here is what is confirmed, what is only a guess, and what it does to a miner.
What the bitcoin ETF outflows looked like
BlackRock’s IBIT lost $233.7 million. Fidelity’s FBTC lost about $201 million. Altcoin Buzz puts FBTC at $201.04 million, and CoinDesk says $201.4 million. ARK’s ARKB lost $129.55 million, Grayscale’s GBTC $53.32 million and Bitwise’s BITB $25.72 million. Finally, the other funds showed no net change.
The day snapped four straight days of inflows. It also ranks as the 12th-largest outflow since these funds launched in January 2024, per CoinDesk. Before Friday, though, the funds were up just over $1 billion for 2026. Friday erased 63.6% of that. As a result, total assets slipped below $100 billion, to about $98.14 billion.
Did the Binance hack cause it?
Nobody can prove that. Derive founder Nick Forster told CoinDesk the market was already under pressure and the hack “added another layer of uncertainty.” Altcoin Buzz is more careful. It says the flow data alone does not show the hack directly caused the withdrawals. For example, rebalancing, risk management and changing price views are all possible.
Other pressure was there too. About $1.57 billion in crypto futures was liquidated, per Altcoin Buzz. Moreover, Bitfire Research flagged a negative Coinbase premium and a Fear & Greed reading around 30 to 34. So we call the hack a trigger, not the only cause. Our earlier look at the Binance withdrawals reopening covers the exchange side.
What comes next for bitcoin
Bitcoin trades near $77,965 as we write this on November 2. It briefly fell toward $76,400 on Friday, per Altcoin Buzz. Because of that, Bitfire lists the next catalysts: the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and the payrolls report on November 6. Check the model ranges on our Bitcoin price prediction page.
Miner math: what the bitcoin ETF outflows mean for your margin
Here is the live maths on November 2. Bitcoin is $77,965 and the network is 1050 EH/s, so hashprice is about $33.60 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.71 | -$3.05 | -$6.17 | 4.1c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.69 | -$1.21 | -$3.75 | 6.1c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.13 | -$1.04 | -$3.93 | 6.6c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.65 | $1.12 | -$2.25 | 9.3c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
If the outflows keep going and bitcoin slides another 10%: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.1 to 5.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.21 to -$1.60.
The blunt answer for miners
At 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, three of the four machines in the table lose money today. Only the S21 Pro makes a profit. Also, one bad ETF day did not change the network, because hashrate sits near 1050 EH/s according to mempool.space. However, a falling price squeezes older machines first. So if you run S19-class hardware above 6 cents, we would look at our we buy used miners page before the next difficulty change, or read the mining economics guides.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.