Altcoin Season Unlikely, Hyblock CEO Says; $5 XRP, $1 DOGE Doubted
Altcoin season is unlikely this cycle, says Shubh Varma, CEO and co-founder of Hyblock Capital. CoinTurk and COINOTAG both report his view, dated November 8. As a result, he doubts the popular $5 XRP and $1 DOGE targets. XRP trades near $1.15 and DOGE near $0.071, per CoinGecko.
What Hyblock says about altcoin season
CoinTurk quotes Varma: “If you track 100 altcoins, usually if 75% of them are outperforming Bitcoin, you can call that as an altcoin season.” On that test, CoinTurk says no classic season has appeared for at least 18 to 24 months. COINOTAG says only that the 75% benchmark “stays unmet.” Only CoinTurk gives the length of time.
His reason is that money now has more places to go. CoinTurk quotes him: “On these crypto exchanges, you can buy RWAs and you can buy AI equity perks.” In other words, tokenized real-world assets and AI products compete with altcoins for the same cash. About the price targets he said, “I personally don’t see it happening because there’s so much other demand.”
What the XRP and DOGE targets would take
The gap is large. From $1.15, XRP needs a rise of about 335% to reach $5. From $0.071, DOGE needs about 1,304% to reach $1. That is our arithmetic on the CoinGecko prices above. Varma is not predicting a crash. He is doubting those two specific scenarios. Note also that CoinTurk is more hedged than COINOTAG, whose headline says a classic season is ruled out.
One more caution: this is one executive’s opinion from a derivatives-data firm, and the only detailed account is CoinTurk’s. We treat it as a view, not a fact. For our own ranges, see the XRP price prediction page.
Miner math: why bitcoin, not altcoins, pays the S19
Here is the live maths on November 8. Bitcoin is $75,801 and the network is 983 EH/s, so hashprice is about $34.93 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.58 | -$2.92 | -$6.04 | 4.3c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.84 | -$1.06 | -$3.60 | 6.3c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.31 | -$0.85 | -$3.74 | 6.8c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.96 | $1.43 | -$1.94 | 9.7c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
What altcoin season means for ASIC owners
Bitcoin miners earn bitcoin, and an altcoin rally does not change the 453 BTC a day the network pays out. However, a hot market can lift prices across the board, and a cold one leaves hashprice to bitcoin alone. Therefore we would not plan a purchase around altcoin season. Plan around the break-even column instead.
Scrypt miners such as the Litecoin and Dogecoin machines follow different maths. See all miners and our mining economics guides before you buy.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.
How this story was made: drafted with the help of AI tools from public sources, then edited by Nick Squires. See our editorial policy. Spot an error? Email ns@ingmining.com.