Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment Nov 12: Estimates Span 0.3% to 5.5%
The next bitcoin difficulty adjustment is due around November 12, and the two estimates we checked disagree. mempool.space puts it at +0.32%. CoinWarz puts it at +5.46%. After two rises of more than 5% in a row, that gap is the difference between a pause and another squeeze.
When the bitcoin difficulty adjustment lands
First of all, it happens at block 975,744. That part is fixed. However, the time is an estimate, because it depends on how fast blocks arrive. As of November 1, 1,570 blocks were left. mempool.space estimates November 12 at about 18:02 UTC. CoinWarz also points to November 12, but earlier in the day.
Why the bitcoin difficulty adjustment estimates disagree
In short, they look at different windows. mempool.space averages block times since the last adjustment, which is about 9.88 minutes per block so far. Because that is close to the 10-minute target, it sees little change. CoinWarz says its estimate is based on recent block times. So if blocks have come faster lately, that points higher.
Either way, neither is a forecast of the final number. With most of the period still ahead, both will move. Therefore, we will update our read as the date gets closer.
How we got here
The last two adjustments were +5.92% on October 16 and +5.54% on October 29, per mempool.space. CoinWarz shows the same +5.54% move. As a result, difficulty now sits at 148.36 trillion. In other words, the same machine earns less bitcoin than it did a month ago.
What the next adjustment means for your machine
Here is the live maths on November 1. Bitcoin is $77,775 and the network is 1068 EH/s, so hashprice is about $32.92 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.77 | -$3.11 | -$6.23 | 4.0c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.61 | -$1.29 | -$3.83 | 6.0c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.03 | -$1.14 | -$4.03 | 6.4c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.49 | $0.96 | -$2.41 | 9.1c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
What it changes for miners
Simply put, we read a difficulty rise as more hashing power sharing the same 144 blocks a day. Admittedly, that is a rough mapping, not exact, but it is close enough for a break-even check.
If mempool.space is right (+0.32%): almost nothing changes. An S19k Pro still breaks even at about 6.0 cents per kilowatt-hour, and the margin then simply tracks the bitcoin price.
If CoinWarz is right (+5.46%): the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.0 to 5.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.29 to -$1.49.
So a flat print would be the first pause since early October. Another 5% would push more older machines under water, unless bitcoin rises to make up for it.
What would we do? Even after a 5.5% rise, the S19k Pro, S19 XP and S21 Pro would still earn at 5 cents. The S21 Pro would break even up to 8.7 cents, so it is the only one on our list with real room. You can compare them in our S21 Pro vs S19k Pro breakdown, browse miners in stock, or check the bitcoin mining profitability today page, which updates daily.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and you can lose money. Please do your own research.