Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 96%: What It Means for Miners
Fed rate hike odds for December jumped to about 96% on November 10, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a quarter-point increase. Cointelegraph, BeInCrypto and The Defiant all report it. Bitcoin slid toward $74,000. Here is what that means for a miner’s margin.
What happened to the Fed rate hike odds
Before the speech, CME FedWatch put the odds of a 25 basis point hike on December 9 at 84.4%, with no chance of a cut. That is the figure in the headline you may have seen. BeInCrypto ties it to $1.28 billion of net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs between November 2 and 6.
Then Waller spoke at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London. He said that even if inflation improves from September, he would still support a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. Outlets say FedWatch jumped from 76.3% to 96.3%, while some quote about 97%. The readings differ by source and by hour, so treat the exact figure loosely.
He also said a 50 basis point hike should be considered if core CPI rises 0.3% or more month over month. That is Waller’s view, not a Fed decision. The Fed meets on December 9.
Why the Fed rate hike odds hit bitcoin
Bitcoin fell about 1.3% to roughly $74,080 on the day, according to the reports. Higher rates raise borrowing costs and pull money out of risk assets. That is the usual argument, and nobody can prove it from one session. For the price ranges our model expects, see the Bitcoin price prediction page.
What this does to your margin
Blunt answer: a hike does nothing to your power bill, but it can push bitcoin down. Hashprice is only about $34.7 per petahash per day today. It does not take much to push the weaker machines under water.
Miner math: bitcoin hashprice today
Here is the live maths on November 10. Bitcoin is $73,799 and the network is 964 EH/s, so hashprice is about $34.70 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.60 | -$2.94 | -$6.06 | 4.2c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.82 | -$1.09 | -$3.63 | 6.3c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.28 | -$0.89 | -$3.78 | 6.8c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.91 | $1.38 | -$1.99 | 9.6c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
If the hike pushes bitcoin down another 5%: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.3 to 6.0 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.09 to -$1.29.
If bitcoin falls 10% on a 50 basis point surprise: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.3 to 5.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.09 to -$1.49.
Those are “what ifs”, not forecasts. We think the split is clear. Cheap power keeps you in the game. Retail power at 8 cents or more does not. Our mining economics guides show the arithmetic on real machines.
If a machine no longer pays, you can sell us your used miners. To buy efficient units, see all miners.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.
How this story was made: drafted with the help of AI tools from public sources, then edited by Nick Squires. See our editorial policy. Spot an error? Email ns@ingmining.com.