Bitcoin Miner Price Targets Cut 54% After Texas Vote
Bitcoin miner price targets just got cut by 35% to 54%. CoinDesk reports that Bernstein lowered targets on seven miners, citing tighter financing markets and uncertainty over Texas. The trigger: a Democrat won the Texas governor race.
What happened in Texas
Gina Hinojosa beat Republican incumbent Greg Abbott on November 3. CBS Texas and the Texas Tribune both report the result. CoinDesk says she wants to halt new data center approvals until Texas has rules protecting residents from higher power and water costs. That is her stated position as CoinDesk describes it. However, no law has changed yet.
The new bitcoin miner price targets
These are the figures CoinDesk reports, old to new: IREN $100 to $55, Core Scientific $32 to $19, TeraWulf $36 to $20, Cipher $23 to $15, Riot $35 to $18, CleanSpark $24 to $11, MARA $17 to $10. We could only find them in CoinDesk, so treat them as one outlet’s reporting of one analyst note.
CoinDesk adds that Morgan Stanley flags Cipher, MARA and Galaxy Digital as facing more Texas uncertainty, and sees TeraWulf, Hut 8 and Applied Digital as better placed. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani said miners with approved power, including IREN, Riot and Cipher, could benefit if grid access gets harder. Goldman economists expect only temporary pauses, per the same report.
Texas holds roughly a quarter of planned US data center capacity, according to Goldman Sachs as cited by CoinDesk. So the worry is real. Still, the size of it is not settled.
Miner math: what these cuts mean for your hashprice margin
Here is the live maths on November 4. Bitcoin is $80,506 and the network is 1018 EH/s, so hashprice is about $35.80 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.50 | -$2.84 | -$5.96 | 4.4c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.94 | -$0.96 | -$3.50 | 6.5c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.44 | -$0.73 | -$3.62 | 7.0c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $4.16 | $1.64 | -$1.73 | 9.9c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
If the sell-off drags bitcoin down 5%: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.5 to 6.2 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$0.96 to -$1.17.
If 3% of hashrate switches off: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro rises from 6.5 to 6.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$0.96 to -$0.83.
The blunt answer for miners
These cuts hit the AI-hosting story, not your hashprice. Analysts are marking down what miners may earn from leasing power to data centers. The machines in the table above still earn only what bitcoin pays per terahash. Hashrate sits near 1018 EH/s per mempool.space. At 8 cents most S19-class machines lose money today, whatever Bernstein thinks of the stocks.
One side effect worth watching. If Texas data center growth stalls, cheap power stays available for bitcoin miners longer. That is our read, though, not a forecast from any source. If your machines are underwater, see our we buy used miners page or the mining economics guides. Daily price view: Bitcoin price prediction.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.
How this story was made: drafted with the help of AI tools from public sources, then edited by Nick Squires. See our editorial policy. Spot an error? Email ns@ingmining.com.