Crypto Week Ahead: Binance Fallout, Midterms, Jobs Data
This crypto week ahead has three big events: the Binance hack fallout, the US midterms on Tuesday, November 3, and the jobs report on Friday, November 6. Bitcoin trades near $78,000. By our count that is the setup for a choppy week, not a clean trend, per CoinDesk.
Crypto week ahead: the dates that matter
All times are Eastern. CoinDesk lists the calendar, and the jobs date matches the BLS schedule.
- Nov 3: US midterm elections. JOLTS job openings, estimate 7.13 million.
- Nov 4: Riot Platforms and Hut 8 report before the open. The FinCEN comment deadline on the A7 Network proposal also lands.
- Nov 5: Core Scientific reports. The Zcash NU7 upgrade is expected. The Bank of England decides on rates.
- Nov 6, 8:30 a.m.: October jobs report. The prior payrolls reading was 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. CoinDesk gives no consensus estimate.
Binance hack fallout is still the biggest driver
Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday, November 1, three days after the $6.3 billion hack. Customers pulled a net $3.64 billion on day one. Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the stolen funds from its own reserves. That is the company’s claim, and we have not seen it verified independently. We covered the withdrawal reopening and the ETF outflows earlier.
Alex Ryzhkin of B2BINPAY told CoinDesk bitcoin can stabilize at $76,000 to $80,000 this week if withdrawals stay smooth. He sees a push toward $82,000 by the weekend. That is one analyst’s view, not a forecast we share.
Crypto week ahead: midterms and history
According to analyst Ali Martinez, as reported by CryptoPotato, bitcoin fell 72% after the 2010 midterms, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022. However, the same article says this does not prove the elections caused the drops. Four data points are a pattern, not a law.
The 2026 angle is policy. Prediction markets show Democrats ahead, and a Democratic win in either chamber could make crypto-friendly rules harder to pass. The CLARITY Act already failed to clear the Senate in September. CryptoPotato flags the $73,000 area as support if bitcoin sells off after the vote.
Jobs report: the Fed link
A hot payrolls print raises the odds of another Fed hike, and risk assets usually dislike that. A soft print does the opposite. Still, we have no consensus number to give you, so we will not guess one.
Miner math: what this week does to your margin
Here is the live maths on November 2. Bitcoin is $77,776 and the network is 1049 EH/s, so hashprice is about $33.55 per petahash per day. That is what one PH/s of hashing earns before power.
| Machine | 5c/kWh | 8c/kWh | 12c/kWh | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S19 (95 TH/s, 3250 W) | -$0.71 | -$3.05 | -$6.17 | 4.1c |
| Antminer S19k Pro (115 TH/s, 2645 W) | $0.68 | -$1.22 | -$3.76 | 6.1c |
| Antminer S19 XP (141 TH/s, 3010 W) | $1.12 | -$1.05 | -$3.94 | 6.5c |
| Antminer S21 Pro (234 TH/s, 3510 W) | $3.64 | $1.11 | -$2.26 | 9.3c |
Numbers are profit per day after electricity, at the three power prices shown. Break-even is the most you can pay per kilowatt-hour before the machine loses money. Specs are the manufacturer ratings; network data comes from mempool.space. Try your own power price in our free bitcoin mining profit calculator. See what these machines really sold for in our used ASIC miner price index. Want to run the same numbers on a machine you can buy today? See our used ASIC miners, or buy several at once through bulk lots.
If the midterms or a hot jobs print push bitcoin down 8%: the break-even power price on an S19k Pro falls from 6.1 to 5.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.22 to -$1.53.
If bitcoin reaches the $82,000 analyst target (about +5%): the break-even power price on an S19k Pro rises from 6.1 to 6.4 cents per kilowatt-hour. At 8 cents, daily profit goes from -$1.22 to -$1.03.
The blunt answer for miners
Hashrate sits near 1049 EH/s per mempool.space. Read the tables above against your own power price. If an S19 is under water at an 8% drop, it is not a hold, it is a decision. Public miners report Wednesday and Thursday, and their hodl-or-sell choices will tell us how the big players read this quarter. If you want out of older machines, see our we buy used miners page. For the maths behind break-evens, see the mining economics guides.
-Nick
ING Mining
This is general information, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and exchanges can fail. Please do your own research.